Friday, June 5, 2009

Africa: Investing in Carbon Capture and Storage Nature's Way

http://allafrica.com/stories/200906050610.html

United Nations Environment Program (Nairobi)

5 June 2009

Nairobi — Boosting investments in the conservation, rehabilitation and management of the Earth’s forests, peatlands, soils and other key ecosystems could deliver significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and avoid even more being released to the atmosphere, a new report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) says.

Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary-General and UNEP Executive Director, said: “Tens of billions of dollars are being earmarked for carbon capture and storage at power stations with the CO2 to be buried underground or under the sea.”

“This is also in line with UNEP’s Green Economy initiative as for the same dollar, euro, peso or yuan not only are we combating climate change, but potentially delivering additional economic, environmental and developmental benefits from improved water supplies, soil stabilization and reduced biodiversity losses alongside new kinds of green jobs in natural resource management and conservation,” he added.

UNEP’s Rapid Assessment report ‘The Natural Fix? The Role of Ecosystems in Climate Mitigation’ is released to mark World Environment Day 2009, whose global hosts this year are the Government and people of Mexico.

The report comes just under six months before the crucial UN climate convention meeting in Copenhagen, Denmark, where governments need to Seal the Deal on a new, forward-looking treaty.

Key Messages from the Report

The adoption of a comprehensive policy framework under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for addressing ecosystem carbon management would be a very significant advance.

It is vital to manage carbon in biological systems, to safeguard existing stores of carbon, reduce emissions and to maximise the potential of natural and agricultural areas for removing carbon from the atmosphere.

Peatland degradation contributes up to 0.8 Gt C a year, much of which could be avoided through restoration.

The agricultural sector could be broadly carbon neutral by 2030—equal to 6 Gt of CO2 equivalent or up to 2 Gt of carbon if sustainable management practices were widely adopted.

It is essential that climate mitigation policy is guided by the best available science concerning ecosystem carbon, and decisions should be informed by the overall costs and benefits of carbon management.

Developing policies to achieve these ends is a challenge: it will be necessary to ensure that local and indigenous peoples are not disadvantaged and to consider the potential for achieving co-benefits for biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Drylands, in particular, offer opportunities for combining carbon management and land restoration.

Barney Dickson and Kate Trumper of the UNEP-World Conservation Monitoring Centre, which has spearheaded the compilation of the report in collaboration with some 20 leading experts, said: “While more research will be needed to fully capture the carbon and livelihood opportunities from drylands, it is already clear that there is a potentially a big bang for your carbon buck.”

“Their large area means that total carbon potential is high and the often degraded soils means extra carbon could boost agricultural productivity and incomes in some of the poorest parts of the world,” they said.

The research indicates that there may be scope for tackling 15 per cent of these—perhaps even more – through managing land use changes and carbon in ecosystems.

Forests – the largest sink

Tropical forests hold the largest terrestrial carbon store with an annual global uptake of around 1.3 Gt of carbon, or about 15 per cent of the total carbon emissions resulting from human activities.

Global tropical deforestation rates are currently estimated to be as high as 14.8 million hectares per year (about the size of Bangladesh), while deforestation is responsible for nearly one-fifth of the global greenhouse gas emissions – more than the entire transport sector.

Clearing of tropical forests may release an additional 87 to 130 Gt by 2100, corresponding to the carbon release of more than a decade of global fossil fuel combustion at current rates.

Reducing deforestation rates by 50 per cent by 2050 and then maintaining them at this level until 2100 would avoid the direct release of up to 50Gt of carbon this century.
Conventional logging techniques damage or kill a substantial part of the remaining vegetation during harvesting, resulting in large carbon losses.

Improved logging techniques can further reduce carbon losses by around 30 per cent compared to conventional logging techniques.

Forests around the world act as powerful carbon sinks: those in Central and South America are estimated to take up taking up around 0.6 Gt C, African forests somewhat over 0.4 Gt, and Asian forests around 0.25 Gt.

Temperate forests in Europe and North America have been expanding over recent years—in Europe they are estimated to be capturing and storing between seven and 12 per cent of Europe’s emissions. Further reforestation and management could enhance this further.

Agriculture – climate neutral by 2030

The agricultural sector has the largest readily achievable gains in carbon storage if best management practices – such as avoiding turning over the soil and using natural nutrients like compost and manure – were widely adopted.

Up to 6 Gt of CO2 equivalent, or up to 2 Gt of carbon, could be sequestered each year by 2030, which is comparable to the current emissions from the agricultural sector.

Many of the agricultural practices that store more carbon can be implemented at little or no cost. The majority of this potential – 70 per cent – can be realized in developing countries.

Fully returning straw to croplands in China could sequester around 5 per cent of the carbon dioxide emission from fossil fuel combustion in that country based on 1990 emissions.

Many agricultural areas in the Tropics have suffered severe depletion of their soil carbon stocks. Some soils in tropical agricultural systems are estimated to have lost as much as 20 to 80 tonnes of carbon per hectare, most of which has been released into the atmosphere.

Agroforestry – where food production is combined with tree planting – has a particularly high potential for carbon sequestration in tropical areas.

Average carbon storage by agroforestry practices is estimated at around 10 tonnes per hectare in semi-arid regions.

20 tonnes per ha in sub-humid and 50 tonnes per ha in humid regions.

Sequestration rates of smallholder agroforestry systems in the tropics are around 1.5-3.5 tonnes of carbon per ha per year.

Peatlands –chock-full of carbon

Although peatlands cover only a tiny percentage of the Earth’s surface they are, metre for metre, the most effective carbon stores of all ecosystems.
On average peatlands store 1,450 tonnes of carbon per hectare.

Currently, about 65 million hectares of peatlands worldwide are considered degraded with large quantities of carbon being lost as a result of drainage, with half of these losses occurring in tropical areas.

Overall draining of tropical peatlands – mainly for palm oil and pulpwood production – leads to annual carbon losses of up to 0.8 Gt per year. Peat fires in South-East Asia are responsible for half of these emissions.

Planting biofuels on drained peatlands can nowhere near compensate for this release of greenhouse gases.
Combustion of palm oil produced on drained peatland generates 3 to 9 times the amount of CO2 produced by burning coal, equating to a carbon debt requiring 420 years of biofuel production to repay.

Re-wetting of peatlands and replanting of forests in areas that have been deforested can significantly reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases.

Oceans

However, the uptake capacity of oceans and coasts – currently at 2 Gt per year – is both finite and vulnerable.

Some studies suggest that the ability of oceans to soak up carbon could peak at around 5 Gt per year by the end of this century.

The opportunities for enhanced carbon capture and storage is likely to be in the coastal zones and in coastal ecosystems such as wetlands and mangroves.

Inshore waters up to 200 metres in depth, which includes coral and seagrass ecosystems, may be responsible for removing just over 0.2 Gt C per year.

Globally, mangroves may be accumulating around 0.038 Gt C per year, which, when taking their area of coverage into account, suggests that they sequester carbon faster than terrestrial forests.

However, current patterns of use, exploitation and impacts will, if unchecked, lead to coastal wetlands and mangroves becoming carbon sources rather than sinks.

The report estimates that widespread loss of vegetated coastal habitats has already reduced carbon burial in the ocean by about 0.03 Gt C per year.

The cost of ecosystem carbon management

The cost of ecosystem carbon management can be very low compared to other ‘clean energy’ options.

Managing grazing, fertilizers and fire on grasslands to reduce emissions costs as little as US$5 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent per year.

Restoration of soils and degraded land cost about US$10 per tonne, whereas the costs of technological carbon capture and storage are estimated at US$20-270 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent.

The economic mitigation potential of forestry would double if carbon prices increased from US$20 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent to US$100 per tonne.
If carbon emissions were valued at US$100 of CO2 equivalent, in 2030 the agricultural sector would be second only to building as potentially the most important sector for achieving carbon cuts.

At this level of carbon pricing, forestry and agriculture combined would be more important than any other single sector, and would retain high importance at even lower carbon prices.

It is expected that governments negotiating the new climate agreement in Copenhagen in December this year will take the first step in this direction by starting to pay developing countries for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation.

The report argues that a more comprehensive system of payments for ecosystem services needs to be considered.

“Our planet’s living systems have developed ingenious, efficient and cost-effective ways to manage carbon. Sending the right price signals to those who make economic and development choices about the value of preserving and effectively managing our forests, grasslands, peatlands and agricultural lands is critical for the success of any climate change mitigation strategies,” the report says.

UNEP and partners, with funding from the Global Environment Facility, have launched a new project among communities in Western Kenya, Niger, Nigeria and China, to assess with greater precision the amount of carbon locked away in different ecosystems and landscapes under a variety of management regimes.

The findings, leading to a global standard upon which carbon investment decisions can be taken, should be available in some 18 months time.

“If the global community can rise to this challenge, the planet’s living systems will be our best allies in the struggle to avoid dangerous climate change,” Mr Steiner concluded.


Saturday, May 16, 2009

Countries big and small reach consensus to fight climate change

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2009/05/16/countries-big-and-small-reach-consensus-fight-climate-change.html

Abdul Khalik, The Jakarta Post , Manado | Tue, 05/12/2009 2:02 PM | World Ocean Conference

International scientists and representatives from a number of civil society groups underlined Monday the key role the oceans have played in climate change, but acknowledged they lacked scientific evidence to push the world to accept oceans as carbon sinks.

Scientists from developed and developing countries were of the common view that oceans, proven scientifically to have stored much higher concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) than land or forests, were being severely affected by the worsening climate change. They warned the impacts, such as temperature rises, could cause rapid and large-scale release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Experts gathered at the Global Ocean Policy Day preparatory meeting, a sideline event at the World Ocean Conference (WOC) in Manado, also underlined the negative impacts that affected oceans were having on people living in coastal areas and those whose livelihoods hinged on the marine sector.

With such a crucial role, they vowed to table marine issues at any international climate meeting, particularly the UN climate talks in Copenhagen in December, boosting efforts by 80 ocean countries attending the WOC to adopt a declaration to push for the central role of oceans at international talks.

US World Wildlife Fund vice president of marine and Arctic policy Bill Eichbaum said there was no doubt climate change had negatively affected the oceans, as rising temperatures had caused, for instance, the melting of glaciers in the Arctic Sea and had raised world sea levels.

He added high temperatures had forced the release of greenhouse gases from oceans, pushing global warming to unprecedented levels.

"The world has no legal framework or economic system to cope with the possibility, which will cause chaos. That's why it's urgent that the UN tackle the issue," he said.

Raphael Bille of the IDDRI, a French think tank on climate change, said the groups could table the ocean issues by inserting them into the Copenhagen ministerial declaration or by appealing to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the authoritative world body on climate change scientific research.

"Member states will ask the opinion of the IPCC for scientific basis for the role of the oceans in climate change," he said.

However, British scientist Christopher Tompkins, admitted there was insufficient evidence to conclude the oceans could be regarded as significant carbon sinks, discouraging the push to include ocean as part of UN mitigation programs.

"We should focus on an adaptation program rather than pushing oceans as carbon sinks," he said.

The Copenhagen meeting will discuss a new regime on climate change to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.

Bringing ocean issues to the UN talks is crucial for attracting global attention and funding from bilateral and multilateral agreements, with developing countries likely to get funding for their adaptation and mitigation programs in dealing with climate change impacts.

Director of US-based Center for Ocean Solutions, Meg Caldwell, said the world needed to act now and not wait for "perfect science" to support the drive.

Friday, May 15, 2009

Action declared at World Ocean Conference

http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/pacbeat/stories/200905/s2571924.htm

Updated Fri May 15, 2009 3:48pm AEST

Seventy-five of the world's nations have adopted the so-called Manado Declaration on the final day of the World Ocean Conference talks in Indonesia. But the document was watered down after differences over the sharing of technology between developed and developing countries.

Presenter: Gavin Fang
Speaker: Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Indonesian President; Hillary Clinton, US Secretary of State; Peter Garrett, Australia's Environment Minister

GAVIN FANG: A song composed by Indonesia's President opened the final day of the World Ocean Conference. The Indonesian leader then urged conference delegates to create their own harmony on tackling climate change.

SUSILO BAMBANG YUDHOYONO: We therefore have to ensure that ocean sensitive policies be incorporated into technology so that humankind's approach to the challenge of climate change may be comprehensive and wholistic.

GAVIN FANG: US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton didn't attend these talks but she sent a message by video.

HILLARY CLINTON: As we continue our efforts to address climate change we must remember that its effects can be seen not only in melting glaciers and dying coral reefs but also in damaged homes, falling wages, rising poverty, diminished opportunities.

GAVIN FANG: Indonesian officials say they're satisfied with the Manado Declaration which was adopted by 75 countries. There's no specific commitments in the declaration but countries have promised to do more to protect the world's oceans and work together to press for future climate change talks to give more consideration to marine ecosystems. Even getting that agreement required some negotiations, although Australia's Environment Minister played down talks of a split between developed and developing nations.

PETER GARRETT: We will be on the same page on what we agree are the critical and key issues to address. It's not just about writing things down and having a declaration, even though this will be a very important declaration, it's about making sure that we actually do the work together.

GAVIN FANG: What these talks have demonstrated is how difficult it is to get any kind of agreement on climate change and that should serve as a warning ahead of the critical talks in Copenhagen later this year.

75 Countries Adopt the Manado World Ocean Conference

http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/3213947-75-countries-adopt-the-manado-world-ocean-conference

Delegates from 75 countries agrees to adopt the Manado World Ocean Conference (WOC) on the agenda of the of the upcoming UN climate change talks in Copenhagen in December this year.

''The UN to adopt the Manado Ocean Declaration (MOD) at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting in Copenhagen is a road map stipulates that the MOD should compliment the UNFCCC in dealing with climate change talks," said Gellwyn Yusuf, Research Center in Chief on Indonesian Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries in Grand Kawanua Convention Center, Manado, North Sulawesi, Thursday, May 14, 2009.

The Adoption was agreed upon during a high ranking official and Minister meeting attended by head of delegation from 75 countries. UNFCCC is an international treaty on environmental issues, which primarily relates to climate change and reducing global warming. Currently, nearly 200 countries have ratified the convention, which was first enforced on March 21, 1994.

With headquarters in Bonn, Germany, the UNFCCC has so far organized 14 sessions of the Conference of Parties (COP) on climate change, including Bali in 2007, to discuss emissions cuts set under the Kyoto Protocol.

The protocol regulates a legally binding emission target of five percent to all annex I, or developed nations, by 2012. Emission cuts are currently being met through the management of the energy and forestry sectors.

Indonesian Minister of Marine Affairs and Fisheries Freddy Numbery has said that Indonesia's 5.8 million square kilometers of sea could absorb around 245 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year.

The Manado Declaration draft has suggested inviting those managing adaptation programs to consider including provisions for funding so as to integrate coastal and ocean management into the context of climate change.

It also stresses the need to promote the transfer of environmentally sound technologies for oceans from developed countries to developing countries to help the latter mitigate the impacts of climate change. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has to issue the first scientific report on oceans in relation to climate change in 2004.

Some of the countries which adopt the Manado World Ocean Conference such as Indonesia, Philippine, Thailand, Malaysia, Somalia, Suriname, Pakistan, Grenada, United States, Republic of Korea, France, India, China, Kampuchea, Angola, and Namibia

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono on the opening remark in Manado yesterday said that the ongoing World Ocean Conference (WOC) in Manado, North Sulawesi, should not yield a new process for dealing with climate change.

The president made the remark when opening the WOC 2009 at the Grand
Kawanua Convention Center (GKCC) here on Thursday morning. "We have to make it plain that what we are going to do at WOC is not producing a new process but instead strengthen and complete the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)," the
President Susilo added.

Susilo said, the maritime community wanted marine issues to be part of a
global solution to problems related to climate change which had been
under discussion.

"We have to make sure that sensitive marine policies will be be included in the new regime so that a humanitarian approach can be made to the climate change challenge, an approach that is comprehensive and holistic," he said.

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono added that if the Climate Change Convention in
Copenhagen adopted such an approach and the international community applied it well, then mankind would have a better future.

"It is an important opportunity for us to make a momentous statement
for the future of our oceans, planet, and human race, a message that
can be heard out there beyond this convention hall," the President said.

He elaborated that the last time the world heard a political message from the
maritime community was during the signing of an international maritime law in 1982 which gave a dramatic change to the maritime system.

"Now is the right time for the world to listen to another important message that we can only be safe in the 21st century if we are united to protect our oceans," he said.

Meanwhile on the recorded remark, U.S.Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called to the delegates from more than 80 countries and international bodies, and Minister and other higher ranking official on The World Ocean Conference to do more to protect our oceans and preserve the long-term health of our planet and its people, and applauding Indonesia for hosting a conference.

Hillary Clinton said the health of the planet and the health of the oceans are linked. ‘’And today, our oceans are under stress from several sources: acidification and over-fishing, unconstrained development and pollution, and global warming,’ Clinton said.

A series of symposiums on science, technology and policy has also been held since Monday, bringing about 1,500 international scientists, climatologists, entrepreneurs and policy-makers to share the latest information, scientific knowledge and technologies related to the ocean from more than 80 countries. Ocean countries, most of which are developing nations, such as Indonesia, Philippine, Papua New Guinea and Malaysia attending the gathering in Indonesia's North Sulawesi provincial capital Manado to bring up the significance of oceans in climate change to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen in December, 2009.

The Copenhagen talks are expected to discuss a new regime to replace the Kyoto Protocol that will expire in 2012. The protocol requires developed countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions. "It is critical that we lay as much ground work as possible now to ensure a successful outcome in December. At the World Ocean Conference, you can help focus the world's attention on the link between oceans and climate change and advance global efforts to find science-based solutions to the problems we face," Clinton said.

The declaration is expected to table scientific support at the 31st session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, slated for Oct. 26-29 on the resort island Bali. The world's only authoritative body on scientific climate matters, the IPCC was established by the World Meteorological Organization and the U.N. Environment Program. It is now working on its fifth assessment report, including on the ocean, which is expected to be completed in 2014.

Meanwhile, delegation from China and Indonesia in the World Ocean Conference agree to form a newly organization call Indonesia-China Center for Ocean and Climate (ICCOC). The agreement was approving on the Signing of Memorandum of Understanding by Indonesian Research Center Body in Chief Gelwyn Yusuf and China Oceans Minister. Gelwyn said, the Cooperation on Ocean and Climate research in order to intensify the cooperation and communication on Ocean Science and Technology. The cost of the World Ocean Conference (WOC) and the Coral Triangle Initiative (CTI) Summit in Manado, North Sulawesi, had been estimated at Rp380 billion Indonesian rupiah.


Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Ocean's role on climate change mulled

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/print/207851.htm

Tuesday, May 12, 2009
AP

MANADO, Indonesia -- The role oceans play in countering climate change will dominate talks between environmental experts from 120 countries meeting in Indonesia this week.

The World Ocean Conference that opened on Monday in the northern city of Manado will shape the scientific debate ahead of final negotiations to replace the U.N. treaty on global warming in Copenhagen, Denmark, in December.

The Kyoto Protocol, the most important document on climate change, expires in 2012.

Officials hope the meeting on Sulawesi island will boost recognition of the need to protect oceans and marine ecosystems that absorb carbon dioxide.

One of the gathering's main goals will be to create a permanent international forum to coordinate conservation attempts and counter the impact of rising oceans blamed on higher temperatures.

Indonesia, the world's largest archipelago, will host a simultaneous summit of leaders from the Coral Triangle Initiative, a grouping of six Asian countries comprising one of the world's richest marine areas.

The three-day gathering will be attended by host Indonesia and leaders from Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, the Solomon Islands and East Timor, whose territories boast 75 percent of all known coral species and more than 3,000 fish species.

Friday, May 1, 2009

Ocean plays important role in absobing carbon

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2009/05/01/ocean-plays-important-role-absobing-carbon-minister.html

Adianto P. Simamora, The Jakarta Post , Jakarta | Fri, 05/01/2009 11:15 AM | National

Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Minister Freddy Numberi renewed calls on world leaders to pay serious attention to ocean issues when negotiating emissions cuts to help combat climate change.

"There is no reason to neglect ocean in discussions about emissions cut target as the ocean has also capability to absorb the carbon," he told reporters.

He said that total of carbon absorbed in ocean should be calculated under the clean development mechanism (CDM).

The CDM was part of the Kyoto Protocol commitment allowing developing countries to develop projects aimed to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

In turn, developed nations should provide financial incentives based on total emissions reduction.

Freddy said that Indonesia's ocean could absorb about 67 million carbon per year or equal with 245.5 million tons of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) per year.

The CO2 was main contributor on global warming causing climate change. Under Kyoto, only carbon from energy combustion eligible for carbon trading.

Freddy, however, invited the world's researchers to determine whether ocean could be a carbon sink and sources.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

The wetlands at Huntington Beach: Will they be a savior or victim of global warming?

http://www.examiner.com/x-6440-LA-Science-News-Examiner~y2009m3d25-Huntington-Beach-wetlands-A-force-against-global-warming-may-be-threatened

March 25, 11:38 / AMLA Science News Examiner / SA Kyle


The current restoration of the Huntington Beach wetlands could hold a more significant ecological recovery than previously imagined—beyond giving habitat to endangered species like the California Least Tern, the saltwater marsh could help fight global warming by acting as a natural carbon sink. But the very quality that endows this wetland with its unique ability to fight global warming—its connection to the ocean—may be its undoing. Global warming, in the end, may win.

According to the first State of the Carbon Cycle Report, wetlands in North America are estimated to sink, or store in their soils, 49 million tons of carbon from the atmosphere each year.

“Wetlands tend to store organic carbon in their soils because they’re wet,” said Dr. Jason Keller, professor of biology at Chapman University, “When there isn’t oxygen available, they store carbon in their soils.”

Salt marshes or brackish marshes that have some connectivity to the ocean are likely to be net sinks of carbon from the atmosphere.

Wetlands are also a natural source of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, however. Microbes that live in the soil of these ecosystems break down plant matter, and in the process release gas. This is why some marshes smell like rotten eggs: gas is released by microbes that use sulfate found in saltwater. It is the smelly sulfate microbes at Huntington Beach that make it such a good candidate to sink carbon from the atmosphere.

“Salt marshes or brackish marshes that have some connectivity to the ocean are likely to be net sinks of carbon from the atmosphere,” said Keller.

The sulfate found in ocean water drives a microbial process called sulfate reduction, which replaces the microbes that produce methane in freshwater marshes. Because saltwater marshes absorb CO2 from the atmosphere and don’t make methane, they are natural carbon sinks. They can even absorb enough CO2 from the atmosphere to be important on a regional scale.

If companies ever have to pay to reduce the amount of carbon they produce, wetland restoration that could pay for itself by taking enough carbon out of the air to pay for its construction.

In fact, some wetland restorations are being proposed as carbon sinks, according to Keller. State governments are interested in how salt marshes can be used as a carbon trading tool because they are well suited to storing large amounts of carbon, while not releasing the more potent greenhouse gas, methane.

Keller imagines that if companies ever have to pay to reduce the amount of carbon they produce, wetland restoration that could pay for itself by taking enough carbon out of the air to pay for its construction.

“If we can restore a large number of these [eco]systems, we have the potential to take some carbon out of the atmosphere,” said Keller. “And you also get all of the other benefits that you get with a marsh: you’re creating habitat, which is always a good thing, you’re creating flood control, which is always a good thing.”

Bolca Chica wetlands near Huntington Beach, Calif. (Photo by Wikimedia Commons)Although wetlands could be a powerful tool in combating greenhouse gases, climate change itself could threaten wetland ecosystems. The drying of Southern California and a rising sea level could destroy saltwater marshes like the ones at Huntington Beach.

The global concern for Mediterranean regions, according to climate simulation models, is that there will be a significant drying by mid-century.

“The global concern for Mediterranean regions, according to climate simulation models, is that there will be a significant drying by mid-century,” said Dr. Dan Cayan, a climate researcher at University of California in San Diego. The California Climate Change Center predicts that Southern California’s rainfall will decrease by 10 to 20 percent over the next 50 years.

When wetlands dry out, organic carbon stored in the soil suddenly has access to oxygen. Microbes that feed on this kind of aerobic respiration cause the drying wetland to vent carbon dioxide, rather than storing it.

“[This] would mean a long term chronic release of carbon dioxide,” said Keller.

When combined with the 4.7 to 10.5 degree temperature rise predicted by the California Climate Change Center by the end of the century, the drying trend is expected to significantly accelerate.

“As it gets warmer, you increase evapo-transpiration which could be a cause of wetlands drying out even faster than they would if just precipitation changed,” said Keller, “There are feedbacks as well. It gets warmer and drier, which causes wetlands to release carbon dioxide, which causes it to get warmer and even drier.”

Rising sea level is the other significant threat to the survival of coastal wetlands like the marshes at Huntington Beach. Though projections vary, the rise in sea level we see today is higher than any point in history, according to Keller.

Our coast could march dramatically inward in the next hundred years, and that places coastal wetlands in a real challenge.

“Our coast could march dramatically inward in the next hundred years, and that places coastal wetlands in a real challenge,” said Keller, “Wetlands can only exist if they can add soil at the same rate or faster than the sea level is rising. If the sea level rises an inch, the wetland gets flooded unless it can add an inch of soil. It’s not clear that all wetlands are going to be able to do that.”

Today, biologists around the world are playing a catch-up game as the natural world as shows its beginning signs of global warming. They are trying to understand how ecosystems will function and, in turn, affect a warmer world.

“All of these interactions make it really, really difficult,” said Keller.

Say you take a specific ecosystem and warm it two degrees, Keller explains. Scientists think they can predict a certain result from this. But if it warms two degrees and gets wetter, that will change the prediction. And if it warms two degrees and gets drier, then a different prediction is made.

But the natural systems Keller and his colleagues work with are much more complex. He explains that often they are dealing with ecosystems that are warming, changing in precipitation levels, and experiencing higher nitrogen and CO2 levels from anthropogenic activities.

“So these interactions of multiple climate change factors are an area where people are still trying to figure out how all these things come together,” said Keller.